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 Markets 2015

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Thump

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Posts : 2718
Join date : 2008-05-13
Location : Central Florida

PostSubject: Markets 2015   Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:36 am

There's a lot of news about the market losing money
in 2015, and arbitrary selected period like Jan 1
to Dec 31 but if another 365 day period was selected
it might have been up.

It doesn't matter, stocks didn't lose value just
because the price they were selling at was lower.

If you did your own research and determined the value
of a company, bought shares near or below that price
you gained in value for the year no matter the price
they are selling for today.  It's value that's important
no matter today's price at the auction prices for the
day.

No one seems to realize that at the end of 2014 stock
prices were high.  I thought they were very overvalued
at the end of 2014 and was surprised they held so high
all the way to the end of 2014, I was expecting an
earlier pull back.  Along came Jan 1, 2015 at a very
high price and they fell like a rock (no offense
intended). So 2015 got off to a bad start at the
stock market auction, falling the first few days of
January and the month as a whole.  That's supposed
to be an indicator of how the year will turn out.
I'm not sure at all it's correct but I didn't really
expect 2015 to show up with a gain at the auction.

If you held on through 2015 you lost no value, you
only lost the opportunity to gamble and try to time the
market.

I haven't retrieved out year end statements yet, still
have the rest of the day and Saturday and Sunday.  
I expect the to be down quite a bit.  We had near
10% inenergy stocks, our Exxom and Chevron are
really down because of the extreme oil price drop,  oil
could stay down for a long time but will start to rise
maybe very quickly when it starts.  Our dividends are
still in place, nobody loses money unless the sell.

The stock market is just an auction, usually
from 9:30 to 4:00, usually five days a week.  Prices
fluctuate.

I believe we're well positioned and the time looks
right for an increae the first few days of January
and the month as a whole.  We lost nothing, 100
shares is still 100 shares today.  2016 should be a
pretty good year statistically, looks good to me
anyway.

Happy New Year.
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rockhump

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PostSubject: Re: Markets 2015   Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:53 am

Well put Thump! Too much is made of what it did the past 365 days. It probably serves as a metric though for determining what investments to analyze for the new year. Right or wrong, I do look at the indices to see how I fared. In a couple of accounts, I eked out a slightly better return than the Dow and S&P but for the most part it was a flat year.

Like you, I was beat down by the energy sector. I'm not selling although there may be a little more pain left to come there. I suspect 50% or better returns there in the next few years but who knows. Buy something of value and hold it until that value is no longer there.

Yep, 2016 should be better I think.

Happy 2016!
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Thump

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Location : Central Florida

PostSubject: Re: Markets 2015   Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:38 am

Well said Rock!  I'm encouraged that we both have
become really great investors.  I'll no longer
speculate, that's a gamble but I do think the large
meaningful market pullbacks are worth taking
advantage of with the cash I'm holding.

I'm  not a betting man but I'd bet a shiny nickel
that the period from Jan 31, 2015 to January 31, 2016
period will look like a very good gain.

EDIT:
PS: I copied your post and emailed it to Honey, been
bragging on it to her. She can't get here on her ipad,
can only go where the ipad takes her unless I email
her a link.
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